2LT International News

TOKYO/WASHINGTON, D.C.: The U.S. government shutdown that has halted the release of official economic data is rippling far beyond Washington, leaving central bankers and policymakers from Tokyo to London struggling to assess the health of the world’s largest economy and adding fresh uncertainty to already fragile global markets.

For countries whose currencies, exports, and inflation trends hinge on U.S. economic momentum, the data blackout threatens to obscure vital signals at a time when the Trump administration’s protectionist policies are already reshaping global trade.

“It’s a serious problem. We hope this gets fixed soon,” said Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, describing the challenge of making policy decisions without reliable U.S. indicators.

One Japanese policymaker was blunter: “It’s a joke. (Federal Reserve Chair Jerome) Powell keeps on saying the Fed’s policy is data-dependent, but there’s no data to depend upon.”

At the Bank of England, policymaker Catherine Mann said that while the U.S. data freeze isn’t central to the BOE’s immediate decisions, the broader erosion of confidence in U.S. institutions poses long-term risks. She likened potential damage to the dollar’s global role to “termites” slowly eating away at its foundations.

The shutdown, triggered by a budget standoff in Washington, has frozen the publication of jobs reports, inflation data, and other key indicators from a US$30 trillion economy that accounts for about a quarter of global output.

Finance ministers and central bankers from around the world have gathered in Washington this week for the IMF and World Bank meetings, where concerns over the U.S. political climate are dominating discussions.

The IMF warned in its World Economic Outlook this week that political interference in U.S. data collection could erode global trust. “Pressures on technocratic institutions … could significantly complicate the tasks of central banks and policymakers,” the report said, adding that weakened data reliability raises “the likelihood of policy mistakes.”

Compounding those worries are U.S. President Donald Trump’s efforts to expand influence over the Federal Reserve and his firing of the Bureau of Labor Statistics chief following an unfavorable jobs report — an act the IMF cited among key “downside risks” to the global economy.

Private data firms and the Federal Reserve’s own surveys have kept some information flowing, but analysts warn these substitutes are imperfect. “The shutdown and the tumult around BLS contribute to the general skepticism about the governance of the U.S.,” said Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute and a former BOE official. “It eventually feeds into reserve management and currency decisions.”

The IMF’s latest forecast shows global growth recovering slightly to 3.2 percent, but economists say the longer the U.S. data blackout persists, the murkier that picture becomes.

“Certainly, there is still a great deal of information out there,” said Robert Kahn, global macro director at Eurasia Group. “But as time goes on, the risk of error rises as uncertainties compound.”