2LT International News

DAKAR, SENEGAL: Ivory Coast’s rapidly expanding mining industry was preparing for possible disruption ahead of the tense presidential election which was on Saturday, as President Alassane Ouattara seeks a controversial fourth term and major opposition leaders have been barred from running.

Mining has become a cornerstone of Ouattara’s economic strategy to diversify the world’s largest cocoa producer. Since he came to power in 2011, gold production has jumped from 10 metric tons in 2012 to more than 58 tons in 2024, with the government aiming to reach 100 tons by 2030.

But political tensions are rising. Ivory Coast has a bloody history of election-related violence — more than 3,000 people were killed in the 2010–2011 conflict that brought Ouattara to power, while at least 85 died in clashes around the 2020 election.

This month, protests have erupted in several towns. On October 14, police said a projectile killed one person during an opposition rally, and hundreds were arrested.

Worried about unrest, mining companies are stockpiling fuel, cyanide, caustic soda, and explosives, and relocating staff closer to their operational sites to ensure safety, according to three industry sources. Supplies are being strategically positioned in northern hubs such as Korhogo and Odienné, and companies are negotiating additional storage facilities outside active mines.

Ivory Coast has stood out as a safe and stable destination for mining investment amid growing insecurity and stricter regulations in neighboring Sahel countries. The sector has attracted significant international players such as Barrick Gold, Perseus Mining, Endeavour Mining, Fortuna Silver Mines, and Montage Gold, which the Lundin Family Trust and Zijin Mining back.

New arrivals this year include Resolute Mining and Tietto Minerals, owned by China’s Zhaojin Mining, which have obtained fresh permits for gold, lithium, copper, and cobalt.

Now, that momentum faces uncertainty. The exclusion of former President Laurent Gbagbo and former Credit Suisse CEO Tidjane Thiam — both seen as Ouattara’s strongest rivals — has deepened opposition anger and raised fears of unrest.

“Contingency measures are being scaled up as visibility worsens,” said one senior industry executive. “We’re not saying the country is unsafe, but we’ve seen this before — same cause, same consequences.”

Officials at the Mines Ministry and the Professional Group of Miners of Côte d’Ivoire declined to comment.

Despite the rising tensions, analysts say the overall investment climate remains stable. “There’s a slight pause in deal-making before the vote, but no capital flight or repricing of risk,” said Tiffany Wognaih of consulting firm J.S. Held. “Ivory Coast remains a stable anchor in Francophone West Africa.”

Mike Kruiniger of Fitch BMI added that the miners’ emergency precautions are “sensible,” noting that previous election unrest has reached mining areas before.