2LT International News

WASHINGTON, D.C.: The U.S. Supreme Court’s sharp scrutiny of President Donald Trump’s global tariffs has heightened expectations that the justices could strike them down, a decision that could add fresh turmoil to an already uncertain trade landscape.

During oral arguments on November 5, several justices questioned whether Trump overstepped his authority under the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), which allows a president to regulate imports during national emergencies but says nothing about tariffs.

“Based on the questions posed by the justices, the IEEPA tariffs appear to be in jeopardy,” said Damon Pike, a principal at BDO USA’s customs and trade services practice. He said only Justices Samuel Alito and Clarence Thomas appeared sympathetic to Trump’s interpretation of the law.

Still, Pike and other trade experts said a defeat would likely push the administration to use other trade statutes to reimpose tariffs. That could prolong uncertainty for businesses that had begun adjusting to a steadier trade environment after a U.S.-China truce and new deals with Southeast Asian nations.

“We’ve still got no clarity, CEOs remain kind of precariously positioned around what the future looks like,” said David Young of the Conference Board, who briefed executives after the hearing. “Even if it goes against IEEPA, the uncertainty continues.”

A final ruling may not come until early 2026, and companies remain unsure whether they could recover the more than $100 billion in tariffs already paid.

Justice Amy Coney Barrett raised that issue during the hearing, warning that processing refunds “could be a mess.”

Neal Katyal, the lawyer for five small businesses challenging the tariffs, said those plaintiffs would automatically get their refunds if the court rules against the administration, but other importers would need to file formal claims. “It’s a very complicated thing,” he said, suggesting the court could instead limit relief to stopping future collections.

Customs lawyer Joseph Spraragen said that if the tariffs are declared illegal, “the Supreme Court would likely remand the case” to a lower court to order the administration to rescind them and issue refunds. But he warned, “The administration is not going to be eager to just roll over and give refunds.”

Analysts say a loss at the Supreme Court would be only a temporary setback. Christopher Hodge of Natixis said the administration could pivot to using Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 or Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, both of which grant clear tariff powers, though implementing them could take time and “prolong the uncertainty of trade policy.”

Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran said a ruling against Trump could have monetary policy implications, adding that renewed uncertainty “could be a drag on the economy,” though potentially offset by lower interest rates.